George Goncalves, Independent Bond Strategist

As the special Crisis Series within the Alpha Exchange continues, it was a pleasure to catch up with former colleague, George Goncalves.  A 20 year veteran on both the buy-side and sell-side, George most recently led the Fixed Income Strategy effort at Nomura Securities. Our discussion considers the post GFC regulatory landscape that emerged in the US Treasury market and how, over time, the Street’s capacity to bear risk was compromised even as the government’s appetite to run larger deficits grew.  George walks through how we got to September of 2019, when repo market disruption fired a loud warning shot that market plumbing was vulnerable to crack. The increased prominence of the relative value investor, whose strategies are short liquidity and volatility, has figured prominently in the breathtaking explosion of volatility in the risk-free complex and the resulting role the Fed has needed to play to support market functioning.  Looking forward, George sees the potential that rates are headed lower still, but, given the degree of government capital directed towards the economic sudden stop, ultimately see value in inflation-protected securities like TIPS.  Thanks for listening and be safe.