Alternative Visions- Soft Landing in 2024..Or Deeper Recession?

Today’s show discusses the growing media spin on the US economy that it’s headed for a ‘soft landing’—i.e. no recession as inflation continues to abate. Dr. Rasmus dissects the 3rd quarter US GDP numbers of 4.9% annual growth rate that is feeding the soft landing hype. The four major elements of GDP are reviewed, showing 3rd Quarter was an aberration driven by business over-expansion of inventories in expectation of a surge in consumer spending in 4th quarter that is now not appearing. What’s really happening with real consumer spending and retail sales, adjusted for inflation; real wage incomes; categories of business investment; and US exports in a global economy slowing noticeably. Rasmus explains how nearly all the slowdown in inflation is in the goods sector, and that manufacturing & construction are in a recession since early 2023. The result: the more likely scenario for winter 2023/24 is therefore US GDP will slow sharply and recession in 2024 beyond the goods sector is likely.