英语新闻丨政策利好刺激人民币和股市大涨

Analysts say decisive policy stance bodes well for investment inflow分析人士称，果断的政策立场是投资流入的好兆头The renminbi rallied to its strongest level in more than a year and Chinese equities continued their rebound on Wednesday, after a potent policy package lifted investors' confidence in the Chinese economy, which is expected to sail through headwinds.25日，人民币汇率升至一年多来的最高水平，中国股市继续反弹。此前，强有力的一揽子政策提振了投资者对中国经济的信心，预计中国经济将逆风前行。Economists, investment banks and asset managers said that policymakers' more decisive stance to shore up the economy, a global interest rate cut cycle, and low asset valuations have combined to make it a potentially good time to invest in Chinese financial assets, which are expected to attract more foreign inflow in the months ahead.经济学者、投资银行和资产管理公司表示，决策者在支撑经济方面采取的更为果断的立场、全球降息周期以及低资产估值等因素结合在一起，使得现在可能成为投资中国金融资产的好时机，预计未来几个月中国金融资产将吸引更多外资流入。However, they cautioned that the forecast may be contingent upon the implementation of further policy support to address economic challenges, with the most urgent priorities being additional fiscal spending to bolster domestic demand and direct funding to alleviate property sector woes.然而，他们提醒，这一预测可能取决于为应对经济挑战而实施的进一步政策支持，目前最紧迫的是增加财政支出以促进国内需求，并提供直接资金以缓解房地产行业的困境。On Wednesday, the renminbi, or Chinese yuan, rose to 6.9951 against the US dollar in the offshore market, up 158 basis points from the previous close and past the 7-per-dollar milestone for the first time in 16 months.25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升至 6.9951，较前一交易日收盘价涨158个基点，16 个月来首次升破7.0元关口。Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that the renminbi's rally is attributable to both Tuesday's policy release, which strengthened investors' confidence in China's economy, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week, which narrowed the yield spreads between US and Chinese bonds.中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币汇率上涨的原因在于24日发布的政策提振了投资者对中国经济的信心，以及美联储上周降息缩小了中美两国国债收益率利差。Looking ahead, Guan said the renminbi is likely to register two-way fluctuations against the dollar, with limited possibility of one-sided, drastic appreciation because uncertainties remain surrounding the Fed's pace of rate cuts, including that the Fed might even reconsider rate hikes if the US economy turns out to be overheated.展望未来，管涛认为，人民币对美元汇率可能会出现双向波动，单边大幅升值的可能性有限，因为美联储的降息步伐仍存在不确定性，如果美国经济过热，美联储甚至可能重新考虑加息。Moreover, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, is expected to take measures to prevent any renminbi exchange rate overshooting if needed, and has accumulated rich experience in this regard, said Guan, who had served as head of the Balance of Payments Department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.此外，曾任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长的管涛表示，中国人民银行作为中国的中央银行，在这方面积累了丰富的经验，预计会在必要时采取措施防止人民币汇率超调。Guan added that in the base case scenario, in which the United States achieves a soft landing while the Fed continues rate cuts, foreign institutions may continue to boost holdings in renminbi-denominated bonds, especially treasury bonds.管涛补充，在美国实现软着陆而美联储继续降息的基本情况下，境外机构可能会继续增持人民币债券，尤其是国债。As of August, overseas institutions' holdings in China's interbank bond market had risen for 12 consecutive months, an increase in foreign holdings of as much as 1.34 trillion yuan ($190.7 billion), according to the PBOC's Shanghai head office.中国人民银行上海总部的数据显示，截至8月份，境外机构已连续12个月增持境内银行间市场债券，累计增持规模高达1.34万亿元人民币（1907亿美元）。Upbeat sentiment乐观的情绪The upbeat sentiment was seen in the A-share market as well. The Shanghai Composite Index went up 1.16 percent to Wednesday's close of 2,896.31 points, extending a jump of 4.15 percent on Tuesday, the biggest rise in about four years.A股市场也出现乐观情绪。上证综指25日收盘涨1.16%，报2896.31点，延续了24日4.15%的涨幅，创下约四年来的最大涨幅。"I believe that this may be a good time to revisit Chinese stocks," said David Chao, global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at Invesco, a global investment management company.景顺亚太区（日本除外）全球市场策略师赵耀庭表示：“我认为现在可能是重新审视中国股票的好时机。”Chao said China has fired off a meaningful monetary stimulus salvo, which may potentially usher trillions of renminbi in liquidity if fully implemented, sending a strong signal that the government is responding to economic headwinds.赵耀庭认为，中国已经打响了有意义的货币刺激战，如果政策全面实施，可能会释放万亿元流动性，表明政府正在应对经济逆风的强烈信号。Major package一揽子政策On Tuesday, China's top financial regulators unveiled a set of measures that some analysts said might be the country's biggest monetary stimulus package following the pandemic.24日，中国最高金融监管机构公布了一系列措施，一些分析人士认为，这可能是疫情之后中国最大的货币刺激计划。This includes a 20 basis point reduction in the seven-day reverse repo rate, a key policy benchmark of interest rates, as well as a 50 basis point cut to rates on existing mortgages and another 50 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio, apart from other steps supportive of the property and stock markets.除了其他支持房地产和股票市场的措施外，该计划还包括将作为主要政策利率的7天期逆回购操作利率下调20个基点，将存量房贷利率下调50个基点，将存款准备金率再下调50个基点。The PBOC started to put the package into action by lowering the one-year medium-term lending facility rate, a policy rate, by 30 basis points to 2 percent on Wednesday.25日，中国人民银行将中期借贷便利利率下调30个基点至2%，开始推动一揽子政策落地实施。A Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday that the latest stimulus package would be strong enough to catalyze a policy-induced rally in shares listed in Hong Kong and on the Chinese mainland, though it would be unlikely to "turn things around fundamentally".高盛25日的一份报告表示，最新的经济刺激计划足以催化中国香港和中国大陆上市股票的政策性反弹，但不太可能“从根本上扭转局面”。The report said a relending program unveiled on Tuesday will allow listed companies to borrow inexpensive money to shore up stock prices and boost investor sentiment, while the stock stabilization fund that is under policy study, if launched, might help fend off systemic risks in the stock market, as indicated by experiences in other markets.报告称，24日公布的再贷款政策将允许上市公司借入低成本资金，以支撑股价和提振投资者情绪，而正在进行政策研究的股票平准基金如果启动，将有助于抵御股市的系统性风险，其他市场的经验也表明了这一点。While the PBOC introduced two new policy tools aimed at boosting stock market liquidity, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a guideline on Tuesday to encourage mergers and acquisitions and a draft rule to strengthen listed companies' market capitalization management.在央行推出两项旨在提高股市流动性的新政策工具的同时，中国证监会24日发布了鼓励并购的指导意见和加强上市公司市值管理的规定草案。Yet more could be done, with Goldman Sachs saying that "we would turn more aggressive on A shares when signs of property market stabilization emerge or policy momentum further strengthens".然而，还有更多事情可以做，高盛表示：“当房地产市场出现稳定迹象或政策势头进一步加强时，我们将对A股采取更积极的态度。”Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, underlined the importance of beefing up fiscal support, as "monetary easing would be less effective without proactive fiscal policy".渣打银行大中华及北亚区首席经济师丁爽强调了加强财政支持的重要性，因为“如果没有积极的财政政策，宽松货币政策的效果将大打折扣”。It is likely that the government will increase bond issuance to accelerate government spending, Ding said, adding that investor sentiment could improve if policymakers decide to broaden the use of bond proceeds, especially to reduce home inventory.丁爽认为，政府很可能会增加债券发行以加速政府支出。如果决策者决定扩大债券收益的用途，特别是用于房地产去库存，那么投资者的情绪将会有所改善。Ding said that Standard Chartered Bank analysts retain the base case forecast that the renminbi will stay within the range of between 7 and 7.1 against the dollar by the end of the year.丁爽表示，渣打银行分析师维持基本预测，即人民币对美元汇率到今年年底将保持在7至7.1的区间内。bodev．预示；预言rallyv. 反弹，振作；重整；团结fluctuationn. 波动，涨落soft landing软着陆fiscal policy财政政策