Top News丨Economists bullish on China's prospects

Amid global economic uncertainties, economists underscored the strong resilience and great potential of China's economy, anticipating its continued prominence as a pivotal contributor to global economic growth this year.在全球经济不确定的情况下，经济学家强调中国经济具有强大的韧性和巨大的潜力，预计中国今年将继续作为全球经济增长的关键贡献者。Despite challenges stemming from weakening external demand and mounting uncertainties, they expressed optimism regarding China's capacity to achieve its annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent, citing proactive fiscal and monetary measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand as key factors supporting the outlook.尽管外部需求减弱和不确定性增加带来了挑战，但他们对中国实现5%左右的年度GDP增长目标的能力表示乐观，并指出旨在刺激国内需求的积极财政和货币措施是支撑前景的关键因素。Justin Yifu Lin, dean of Peking University's Institute of New Structural Economics, said the annual growth target is achievable if the government steps up both fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment.北京大学新结构经济学研究院院长林毅夫表示，如果政府加强财政和货币政策以刺激消费和投资，年度增长目标是可以实现的。"China still enjoys great potential and ample development space," Lin told a macroeconomic forum held on Wednesday by Peking University's National School of Development.2024年3月13日，林毅夫在北京大学国家发展学院举办的宏观经济论坛上表示：“中国仍然享有巨大的潜力和充足的发展空间。”Dismissing speculation that China's economy has reached its peak, he said China enjoys favorable advantages and conditions to maintain sustained growth, including its ultra-large domestic market, a complete industrial system, huge investment in industrial upgrading and its booming digital economy.他驳斥了有关中国经济已见顶的猜测，表示中国拥有保持持续增长的有利优势和条件，包括超大的国内市场、完整的工业体系、在产业升级方面的巨额投资以及蓬勃发展的数字经济。"China's role in the global economy is substantial, as it accounts for around 18 percent of the world economy," Lin said.林毅夫说:“中国在全球经济中的作用是巨大的，因为它占世界经济的18%左右。”"The nation's anticipated growth rate of around 5 percent is poised to contribute one percentage point to global economic expansion, contributing approximately 30 percent of global economic growth, solidifying China's position as the primary driver of global economic advancement."“中国5%左右的预期增长率将为全球经济增长贡献一个百分点，约占全球经济增长的30%，从而巩固中国作为全球经济发展的主要驱动力的地位。”Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, also voiced strong optimism about China's economic prospects, saying the country still enjoys ample room and sufficient policy tools to bolster the economy.岳凯证券首席经济学家罗志恒也对中国经济前景表达了强烈的乐观态度，称中国仍有充足的空间和足够的政策工具来提振经济。He said this year's primary support for the economy could come from forceful infrastructure spending and a new round of large-scale equipment renewal, adding that the country needs to strengthen both fiscal and monetary policies to support the spending.他说，今年对经济的主要支持可能来自强有力的基础设施支出和新一轮大规模设备更新，并补充说，国家需要加强财政和货币政策来支持支出。Luo said the real estate sector and exports may continue to be a drag on China's outlook this year, and more efforts should be made to ensure supply, boost effective demand and stabilize housing prices.房地产行业和出口可能会继续拖累中国今年的前景，应该做出更多的努力来确保供应，促进有效需求和稳定房价。Xu Gao, chief economist at BOC International, said the country needs to take both short-term and long-term countermeasures to tackle issues faced by the economy, including pressures from shrinking demand and weakening expectations.中银国际首席经济学家徐高表示，中国需要采取短期和长期的对策来解决经济面临的问题，包括需求萎缩和预期减弱的压力。"More property and infrastructure investment will help stabilize the overall growth," he said.“更多的房地产和基础设施投资将有助于稳定整体增长。”Xu's views were echoed by Lu Feng, a professor of economics at the National School of Development. He called for strengthened macroeconomic policy adjustment and deepened structural reforms to boost China's supply capabilities and expand domestic demand.徐高的观点得到了国家发展研究院经济学教授陆峰的赞同。他呼吁加强宏观经济政策调整，深化结构性改革，以提高中国的供给能力，扩大国内需求。policy tools政策工具growth target增长指标