Peter Goodburn: The Dollar is in Its Terminal Phase

Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn to the show. Peter is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. Peter discusses how his commodity supercycle theory is likely to play out. This is a very long-term cycle over the past ninety plus years. Many companies were wiped out during the pandemic, and there have been many mergers. This has resulted in shortages along with events like the Ukraine war. Much of this had to do with the transportation ports being unable to keep up with demand. He shows some Elliot Wave charts which detail how inflation in emerging markets and U.S. stocks. Elliott wave is quite useful for seeing patterns and determining where markets are likely to head. After this year's correction plays out, he sees a big commodity cycle move next year across many asset classes. Both interest rates and inflation will move considerably higher. Elliott models are based on repeating patterns that aren't random. There is a process of pattern development that can help predict future events. It's not a crystal ball, as it may be hard to determine why things will play out. Central banks around the world are playing catch up with inflation. They seem to have failed to recognize the signs that inflation would appear. Markets fundamentals aren't as useful as you might expect. The Fed's upcoming announcement will be interesting to see how things play out. Investment banks are reporting that the dollar is a crowded trade. This could mean we're reaching a terminal phase for that trend. He gives some predictions for copper, crude, and gold. Central banks appear to be behind the curve and reacting instead of being proactive. They need to be more forward-thinking. Peter shows some long-term trends for the dollar and why we will see a decline out to 2030. The dollar may not have much left to the upside. The causes of this will likely be continued dedollarization and inevitable loss of confidence. Whatever the trigger, we're going to see a change in the way it's treated globally. Gold has been declining since March due to dollar strength. He believes we're close to a bottom and should begin a new leg up. Silver appears to have bottomed, which is a good sign for gold. Silver normally only outperforms gold in an uptrend. Peter sees massive potential for platinum and miners in general over the next couple of years. Lastly, he examines the various indexes and their possible lows. We may be in for a final countertrend rally before we reach the lows. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Commodity Supercycle6:50 - Elliott Waves & Inflation14:12 - Fundamental Drivers20:25 - Fed Announcements23:13 - Patterns & News26:00 - Copper Prices & Crude34:59 - Dollar Strength & Gold47:16 - Silver Performance50:48 - Platinum52:24 - Trading Approaches54:10 - Mining Equities58:30 - Market Indices & Yields1:07:56 - Interest Rates1:10:05 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode * How the commodity supercycle will play out.* Outlook for copper, crude, gold, silver and yields.* Why silver and platinum will outperform.* Downside targets for equity indexes. Guest Links:Website: https://www.wavetrack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTI Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s, working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper optio...